Elon Musk Forecasts 80% AI Success, 20% ‘Human Extinction'

Nitin Konde, Apoorva Bajj

Sep 19, 2024 — 3 min read

Elon Musk Forecasts 80% AI Success, 20% ‘Human Extinction'

Elon Musk has highlighted the revolutionary power of artificial intelligence (AI) as well as the dangers it could cause to humanity in two separate scenarios. Earlier, Musk, the CEO of Tesla, gave an interview to the podcast titled "All In" in which he discussed his thoughts on the development of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots.

With the assertion that the technology has an 80% chance of being beneficial to society, he proposed that AI technologies would soon be able to outperform humans in practically all tasks. In addition, he offered a stern warning, suggesting that there is a 20% chance of "human elimination" as a result of the unrestricted development of artificial intelligence.

Tesla’s Development of “Optimus

Musk described Tesla's creation of "Optimus," a humanoid robot that is still in the process of being developed. He believes that this robot has the potential to revolutionise common tasks such as landscaping, babysitting, and dog walking.

His prediction was that in the not-too-distant future, these multi-functional robots, which would most likely cost somewhere around $20,000, will become an indispensable component of houses. Apparently, after these robots take over many of the duties that people no longer choose to do, "there's no actual limit to the size of the economy," as reported by a media house.

AI Might Become Threat to the Society

Although Musk highlighted the potential benefits and economic effects of AI, he also discussed the social issues that could arise as a result of this technology. As a result of the replacement of persons in tasks that have historically been considered fundamental to human labour, he projected that artificial intelligence and autonomous robots could lead to a "crisis of meaning" for individuals. One of the most important concerns that Musk raised in his study was the topic of what humans will do with their time in a society that is dominated by machines. He pointed out that some people may have difficulty finding a purpose in their lives.

Musk forecasted that within the next 30 years, the number of robots would significantly surpass that of humans. Despite the fact that he admitted that his estimates are typically unduly optimistic, he anticipated that it would take Tesla approximately 5 to 6 years to build one million Optimus robots on an annual basis. Musk has maintained that many people, particularly seniors, are already enjoying life outside of the working, which suggests that humans may be able to adapt to this shifting landscape. This is despite the fact that artificial intelligence presents a number of obstacles.

Musk’s Future Plans

Elon Musk, however, made passing reference to his own ambitions, suggesting that he had no plans to retire from work anytime soon, even though artificial intelligence was on the increase. There are currently 6 firms that he is involved with, one of which is his most recent endeavour, xAI, which is an artificial intelligence startup that is pitching itself as a competitor to OpenAI.

In addition, he made an understated reference to the fact that he would be willing to participate as an advisor in a government efficiency commission in the event that former President Donald Trump were to return to power.