Elon Musk Forecasts 80% AI Success, 20% ‘Human Extinction'

Nitin Konde, Apoorva Bajj

Sep 19, 2024 — 5 min read

Elon Musk Forecasts 80% AI Success, 20% ‘Human Extinction'

Elon Musk has highlighted the revolutionary power of artificial intelligence (AI) as well as the dangers it could cause to humanity in two separate scenarios. Earlier, Musk, the CEO of Tesla, gave an interview to the podcast titled "All In" in which he discussed his thoughts on the development of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots.

With the assertion that the technology has an 80% chance of being beneficial to society, he proposed that AI technologies would soon be able to outperform humans in practically all tasks. In addition, he offered a stern warning, suggesting that there is a 20% chance of "human elimination" as a result of the unrestricted development of artificial intelligence.

"Elon Musk's prediction of an 80% chance of AI success and a 20% risk of human extinction captures the dichotomy of our technological progress. These percentages represent not just a prediction, but a critical turning point in our relationship with artificial intelligence. On the one hand, 80% represents AI's immense potential for revolutionizing industries, solving complex problems, and improving our daily lives. With innovation comes the promise of smarter healthcare, cleaner energy, and unprecedented connectivity, which could usher in a new era of prosperity," said Manish Mohta, Founder of Learning Spiral.

Sharing his views on the topic, Bhaskar Ganguli, Co-Founder & Director Marketing, Mass Software Solutions stated, "Elon Musk's recent comment concerning AI emphasises its potential as a double-edged sword. The IT industry is grappling with improving operations management and problem resolution in complicated IT settings. AI, a key breakthrough, provides solutions, having already achieved progress in a variety of disciplines. However, the progress of artificial intelligence raises concerns about repercussions that may lead to the situation such as loss of job opportunities, gradual loss of privacy, and development of autonomous weaponry."

However, he further mentioned that maintaining a balanced perspective is vital while considering the potential repercussions and opportunities presented by AI. Notably, everyone is accountable for aiding in the advancement of AI in an ethical, responsible, and societally appropriate manner.

Vipin Vindal, CEO, Quarks Technosoft, opined that Elon Musk's prediction of an 80% success rate for AI and a 20% risk of human extinction serves as a timely reminder of the potential benefits and challenges associated with artificial intelligence. While AI has demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various domains, its development requires careful consideration of ethical implications and potential unintended consequences. A 2023 Oxford study estimates that there's a 50% chance of AI exceeding human capabilities across all tasks within 45 years. To mitigate risks and ensure AI's positive impact, it's imperative to invest in research on AI safety and alignment, establish international standards for AI ethics, and develop robust regulatory frameworks.

A 2023 global survey conducted by Pew Research Center found that 75% of respondents believe AI will have a significant impact on their lives within the next 50 years, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shape AI's development beneficially. To ensure that this impact is positive, it's imperative to invest in AI safety research, establish international governance frameworks, and prioritize human values in AI design.

Tesla’s Development of “Optimus

Musk described Tesla's creation of "Optimus," a humanoid robot that is still in the process of being developed. He believes that this robot has the potential to revolutionise common tasks such as landscaping, babysitting, and dog walking.

His prediction was that in the not-too-distant future, these multi-functional robots, which would most likely cost somewhere around $20,000, will become an indispensable component of houses. Apparently, after these robots take over many of the duties that people no longer choose to do, "there's no actual limit to the size of the economy," as reported by a media house.

AI Might Become Threat to the Society

Although Musk highlighted the potential benefits and economic effects of AI, he also discussed the social issues that could arise as a result of this technology. As a result of the replacement of persons in tasks that have historically been considered fundamental to human labour, he projected that artificial intelligence and autonomous robots could lead to a "crisis of meaning" for individuals. One of the most important concerns that Musk raised in his study was the topic of what humans will do with their time in a society that is dominated by machines. He pointed out that some people may have difficulty finding a purpose in their lives.

Musk forecasted that within the next 30 years, the number of robots would significantly surpass that of humans. Despite the fact that he admitted that his estimates are typically unduly optimistic, he anticipated that it would take Tesla approximately 5 to 6 years to build one million Optimus robots on an annual basis. Musk has maintained that many people, particularly seniors, are already enjoying life outside of the working, which suggests that humans may be able to adapt to this shifting landscape. This is despite the fact that artificial intelligence presents a number of obstacles.

"Musk has long advocated for a cautious approach to AI development, warning that if not properly regulated and controlled, AI could evolve in unpredictable and potentially dangerous ways. His fear stems from the rapid advancement in AI capabilities, which could surpass human intelligence and act in ways that are not aligned with human values or safety," stated Eric Fonseca, VP Marketing, INDOAI Technologies Pvt. Ltd.

"This dichotomy—where AI is seen as a powerful tool for good but also a potential existential threat—reflects the growing debate within the tech community. Musk’s forecast underscores the importance of ethical AI development, advocating for safety measures, global regulations, and transparent oversight to ensure that AI remains a force for progress rather than destruction," Fonseca added further.

Musk’s Future Plans

Elon Musk, however, made passing reference to his own ambitions, suggesting that he had no plans to retire from work anytime soon, even though artificial intelligence was on the increase. There are currently 6 firms that he is involved with, one of which is his most recent endeavour, xAI, which is an artificial intelligence startup that is pitching itself as a competitor to OpenAI.

In addition, he made an understated reference to the fact that he would be willing to participate as an advisor in a government efficiency commission in the event that former President Donald Trump were to return to power.