Global Banks Predict Gold Above ₹1.28 Lakh by 2026 — What Indian Traders Should Prepare For

Gold has once again taken center stage in global financial markets, with the world’s top banks releasing bold price forecasts for 2026. Their projections suggest that gold could climb beyond ₹1.28 lakh per 10 grams in India next year, driven by massive central bank accumulation, monetary easing cycles, and heightened geopolitical tensions. For Indian traders — especially those who invest through ETFs — 2026 is shaping up to be a historic year.

Why Major Banks Are Predicting Record Gold Prices

Bank of America: Most Confident Outlook

Bank of America forecasts gold at $5,000 per ounce in 2026 — equivalent to approximately ₹4.2 lakh per ounce, or ₹1.28 lakh per 10 grams.Their analysts tie the bullish outlook to:

• Rising U.S. deficit spending
• Anticipated “unorthodox macro policies”
• Investors still under-allocated to gold despite volatility

They expect an average price near ₹3.8 lakh per ounce in 2026, hinting at sustained upside.

Deutsche Bank: Strong Central Bank Support

Deutsche Bank has revised its 2026 gold target upward to $4,950/oz, marking a notable increase from its earlier estimate.Their projections highlight:

• Healthy investor flows
• A completed correction in speculative positions
• Strong central bank buying as the key anchor

The bank expects gold to fluctuate in a wide band, providing multiple entry and exit points for active traders.

Goldman Sachs: Institutional Consensus Strengthening

In a survey of 900+ institutional investors, 36% believed gold would surpass $5,000/oz by end-2026.Goldman’s commodity team sees gold reaching $4,900/oz, supported by:

• Central banks increasing gold reserves since the 2022 Russia freeze
• Expectations of a 75 bps Fed rate cut in 2026

JP Morgan: Most Aggressive Forecast

JP Morgan Private Bank expects gold to hit $5,300/oz, roughly 20% above current levels.Their analysts argue that gold remains the strongest hedge against currency debasement and elevated global risks.

Why Are Prices Expected to Rise This Fast?

1. Unprecedented Central Bank Buying

Global central bank gold reserves rose from 13% in 2022 to 22% in 2025, a massive jump.Since 2013:

• Central banks bought 264 million ounces
• Gold ETFs accumulated only 15 million ounces

This means official-sector demand now drives the price floor in global markets.

2. Expected Interest Rate Cuts

Markets now price an 83% chance of a Fed rate cut next cycle. Historically:

• 2000 = +31% gold rally
• 2007 = +39%
• 2019 = +26%

Rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making ETFs and physical holdings more attractive.

3. Global Inflation & Currency Concerns

With persistent deficits and rising liquidity injections, the “currency debasement trade” has returned.Gold’s performance in 2025 — up 65% — already mirrors investor fears about weakening currencies.

4. Geopolitical Stress

Tensions in the Middle East and Europe have pushed global gold demand up 10% this year.During recent conflicts, MCX gold surged past ₹1 lakh, proving India’s strong safe-haven appetite.

Domestic Impact: Why India Could Hit ₹1.28 Lakh/10g

MCX February 2026 gold futures already trade near ₹1,29,500, and Delhi’s spot market is close to ₹1,27,900 for 24K purity.Additional Indian factors boosting prices include:

• 6% import duty
• 3% GST on bullion
• Rupee’s 3.3% depreciation, which inflates local prices more than global prices

Indian gold demand is further amplified by culture, weddings, and festivals — unlike Western markets.

Indian Retail Participation Surges via ETFs

Gold ETFs in India witnessed record inflows of ₹27,600 crore in 2025, with 9.11 lakh new accounts added in October alone.For Indian traders, gold ETFs provide:

• High liquidity
• Lower spreads
• No storage/insurance costs
• A hedge against rupee depreciation

With global banks projecting multi-year highs, gold ETFs may remain a major retail favorite in 2026.

Conclusion: A Strong but Cautious Road Ahead

Gold’s setup for 2026 looks overwhelmingly bullish, but risks remain:

• A sudden equity market rally may divert money away from gold
• Unexpected Fed tightening could cap price gains
• Central banks may slow purchases if prices overshoot

Still, the structural pillars remain intact: central bank demand, inflation fears, geopolitical conflicts, and weakening currencies.

For Indian traders — especially those using ETFs — 2026 could be one of the most profitable gold cycles in decades.

Disclaimer: This press release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.