IMF Estimates Stays Bullish With 7.3% Growth on India Despite U.S. Tariffs & Global Uncertainty

- Tariffs, trade tensions, and a weak rupee will not slow down the Indian economy. - IMF projects 7.3% growth, lowering inflation to 4%, and improving economic stability.

Adepu Bindu

Adepu Bindu

— 3 min read
IMF Estimates Stays Bullish With 7.3% Growth on India Despite U.S. Tariffs & Global Uncertainty
IMF Estimates Stays Bullish With 7.3% Growth on India Despite U.S. Tariffs & Global Uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided optimistic growth estimates for India’s economy in 2026 and 2027. This is huge, given that global trade risks still persist. Pressure from the U.S. and EU to ban Russian oil. Trump's 50% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S. The weakening of the Indian currency against the dollar and investors pulling money out of Indian markets. Despite all of these, the IMF signals stable growth to India. The growth can be nearly 7.3%. So, what about the inflation rates? What do India’s own official numbers say? For all that, learn more.

Image Credits - IMF official site
Image Credits - IMF official site

India’s GDP Growth: Key Numbers at a Glance

Fiscal Year

GDP Growth Rate

Who Gave the Estimate

Key Reason/Note

2024–25

6.5%

Official (MoSPI)

Actual growth of the previous fiscal year. 

2025–26

7.4%

MoSPI (First Advance Estimates)

Strong economic performance expected.

2025–26

7.3%

IMF (Revised)

Better-than-expected Q3 results and strong Q4 momentum.

2026–27

6.4%

IMF (Revised)

Growth expected to slow as temporary factors fade. 


  • The IMF has raised its estimate to 6.4%; earlier it was 6.2%. 

2027–28

6.4%

IMF (Projection)

Stable but moderated growth. 

What Do India’s Own Official Numbers Say About the Economy?

According to India’s Statistics Ministry, the GDP during April–September 2025–26 was 8%. This rose to a good 8.2% during July–September alone. On the other hand, MoSPI’s first advance estimates indicate that the economy will grow by 7.4% in the current fiscal year, up from 6.5% in 2024–25. Therefore, the inside numbers do closely support the IMF’s predictions that the Indian economy will likely grow (with steadiness). 

IMF Economic Outlook - Image Credits - IMF official site
IMF Economic Outlook - Image Credits - IMF official site

What About Inflation in India?

According to the IMF, inflation is expected to fall back close to the target. And the reason is that food prices are expected to remain low. The forecast says 4% for 2026, with a slight increase to 4.4% by year-end. The RBI’s inflation target is around 4%, with an allowed range of 2% to 6%. Therefore, a low inflation projection is good news. 

Final Thoughts...

IMF projections and inside numbers closely match and indicate a steady, stable growth for India. Consumers and policymakers can take a breather, as trade hurdles and geopolitical issues are not yet negatively impacting the economy. However, time shall reveal more about how these numbers will take shape if the given situations were to cool down or go bad. Keep in touch. 

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