The Bretton Woods agreement made the US Dollar the official leader of the World’s reserve currency supported by the world’s largest gold reserves. This was after the Second World War. Even today the USD is one of the world’s strongest currencies. The Dollar bill as we know it today was printed in 1914. Even today, the central banks of various countries, including India, hold almost 60% of their reserves in USD.
Currency Demand and Force
In simple terms, the value of any currency increases with an increase in the demand for it and decreases with the decrease in demand for it. On the global stage, the force of currencies is determined by central banks. However, the demand for the said currency is determined by the demand for the goods and services produced by the country.
The same rule applies to foreign exchange requests. The higher the demand for foreign exchange, the more currency falls.
Why the Indian Rupee Is Falling Against the Dollar?
In the post-Covid world of 2022, India has seen a steady decline in the value of INR against the dollar. It is imperative to understand that the Indian Rupee has steadily downgraded against the dollar for several decades. One of the key reasons for this has been the rising inflation affecting the Indian Economy.
Currently, the Indian Rupee is valued at around INR 79 to 1 USD. The last couple of weeks has seen the Indian Rupee reach an all-time low value of INR 79 against 1 USD. There are several reasons for this steep decline, some domestic as well.
One of the key reasons for this decline is the pullout of FIIs in an uncertain global market. Added to this are the geopolitical uncertainties due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
This has led to investors retreating from emerging markets like India to the safety net of the USD. According to the latest figures, the Foreign Portfolio Investor outflow is to the tune of 2.11 Lac Crore.
Reasons domestic in nature include the steep price rise in crude oil. Added to this pressure is the elevated cost of edible oil again due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In light of the fact that most of India’s crude oil and edible oil requirements are imported, this elevated price will continue to put pressure on the Indian Rupee.
The Indian Rupee's performance has been backed into a corner. Worsening terms of trade on the global platform, geo-political instability, FIIs foreign institutional investor outflow and the crowning glory – RBI’s FOREX stance. However, the scenario is not as grim as it looks on the outside.
On the Global Stage, the Indian currency has held up against the dollar a far sight better than some other counterparts. This showcases a light at the fast-approaching end of the tunnel.
What Does the Future Hold for Indian Rupee?
The effects of the war in the short term will be seen in the upcoming quarter which might continue to put pressure on the Indian Rupee. In the short-term future, the Indian Rupee may settle down between INR 77 to INR 79 against 1 USD. However, there are many reasons to look forward to a strengthening INR in the global markets in the future.
First and foremost is the fact that the RBI has a comfortable FOREX reserve. Even though the Indian current deficit is well over 90 billion USD, this reserve would help prevent further weakening of the Indian Rupee against the USD.
While the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a standstill for a few months, it also triggered companies to relook at their internationally located manufacturing units, most of them based in China.
The overall unfriendly policies of the Chinese Government have also prompted most manufacturing companies to start looking at alternative emerging markets like India and Indonesia to set up their plants. This is also likely to attract FIIs back into the country and increase their investment portfolios
As the Indian economy strengthens with the domestic financial markets edge towards a bull run, the signs are all there, that even though the immediate future is slightly bleak, there is every reason to hope for a fantastic recovery of the Indian Rupee against the USD.
What are the reasons for the decrease in rupee value?
Rising crude oil prices, rising import costs and the Russia-Ukraine war are some of the reasons for the fall in the rupee against the us dollar.
What happens when the rupee falls against the dollar?
If the rupee faals against the dollar the cost of raw materials will increase which will be passed on to the consumers so the cost of products will also increase.