Navy Vijay Ramavat on Navigating Market Cycles and Powering Investment Opportunities through Indira Securities

In this exclusive interaction with StartupTalky, Navy Vijay Ramavat, Managing Director of Indira Securities, shares his insights on reading market signals, navigating volatility, and spotting opportunities amid changing global and domestic trends. He discusses how investors can balance active and passive strategies, benefit from emerging sectors like pharma, engineering, textiles, IT, and auto parts under CETA, and adopt disciplined, data-driven approaches to manage risk and build long-term wealth.

StartupTalky: What are the key indicators that investors need to watch to determine if the ongoing market phase indicates a rebound or a long correction?

Mr. Ramavat: To understand if markets are going to bounce back or towards a longer slowdown, it's all about watching out for a few signals such as market trends, the economy, investor sentiment, global events, and also how your portfolio is performing.

Technical indicators

• Market Breadth: An actual bounce typically appears in most sectors and mid, small caps, not only the big index names.
• Volume & Price: Rising prices accompanied by good delivery volumes indicate real buying.
• Sector Rotation: When funds shift from safe havens such as FMCG and Pharma to cyclical sectors such as Banks, Infra, and Autos, it is a sign confidence is coming back.

Macro indicators

• Interest Rates: Declining interest rates or rate-cut expectations tend to initiate a recovery.
• Inflation & Liquidity: Weak inflation and soft liquidity provide the environment for a rally in the market.
• Credit & Investment Growth: Increased borrowing and business investments generally point to better corporate sentiment.

Sentiment indicators

• VIX: Decreasing volatility indicates less fear.
• FII/DII Flows: Consistent institutional buying reflects confidence returning.
• Derivatives Positioning: Favorable rollovers, long index futures positions, and healthy ratios reinforce improving sentiment.

Global & External influences

• Global Markets: US market movements and world yields influence local sentiment.
• Geopolitics: Reduced tensions or cleared trade disputes can assist in recovery of markets.
• Currency & Commodities: A stable rupee and reasonable commodity prices underpin emerging economies such as India.

Market cycle perspective

Understand where we stand in the cycle. Corrections are the norm after a huge bull run. Accumulation at lower levels after a severe drop can be a sign of an early upturn.

Your portfolio as a reality check

One of the easiest ways to test the health of the market is your own holdings. If your quality stocks are rising again, that's a good sign. If not, sentiment could still be weak.

StartupTalky: The five big sectors who are already benefiting early from CETA are in focus. How can traders and investors position themselves strategically to gain from these opportunities?

Mr. Ramavat: CETA is providing larger opportunities for industries such as pharmaceuticals, engineering products, textile, IT services, and auto parts. They get benefited by reduced trade barriers, simplified market access, and improved global competitiveness.

For investors, concentrate on tier-1 and tier-2 export-oriented firms with healthy balance sheets, they can grow quickly as demand improves.

For traders, initial momentum typically reflects in sector leaders. Observing price breakouts, volumes, and sector rotation patterns can identify short to medium-term opportunities.

For the longer term, consider stocks placing bets on capacity expansion, global compliance, or supply-chain efficiencies. A barbell strategy is effective, with large blue-chip exporters to provide stability and smaller niches for greater upside.

How investors and traders can behave - 

• Begin small and add exposure gradually as export orders become apparent
• Employ derivatives strategically in liquid stocks. 
• Monitor quarterly reports for export growth, UK orders, and margin trends
• Hedge currency and input cost risks
• Monitor sector rotation and rebalance your portfolio as appropriate

StartupTalky: With market volatility, how can investors manage the trade-off between passive and active strategies to achieve improved risk-adjusted returns? 

Mr. Ramavat: In a volatile market, it pays to have some passive and some active strategies. Diversification is important but don't over-diversify or you spread returns too thinly. Maintain a core passive element via index funds or ETFs, along with gold or silver ETFs for stability. Incorporate active investments over time when there are definite indications of strength, with a focus on fundamentally sound companies with long-term value. Having some fixed income is also crucial. A larger percentage in high-yield bonds (8–12%) delivers consistent income, with liquid funds or sweep accounts (4–7%) providing immediate access to cash. This setup keeps you in the market, stabilizes returns, and still lets you capture upside.

StartupTalky: Which sectors, in your analysis, present the most promising growth potential in the medium to long term, and what factors drive this outlook?

Mr. Ramavat: A simple way to find good sectors is to look at government priorities and economic reforms. With RBI rate cuts and GST reductions, consumption looks strong. FMCG, consumer durables, and discretionary spend business gains directly. Reduced borrowing costs benefit banks and NBFCs, particularly microfinance and gold-loan operators. Government priorities on infrastructure and logistics provide growth possibilities for firms in these segments, whereas clean energy and water management are long-term priorities supported by policy and sustainability momentum. These industries together provide cyclical rebound and long-term growth, which makes them interesting for medium to long-term investment. 

StartupTalky: Future reforms like cuts in GST rates are also likely to spur consumption. How does one see this impacting investment opportunities in sectors like FMCG, automobiles, and other consumer-driven industries?

Mr. Ramavat: GST rate reductions will drive consumption, particularly in sectors like FMCG, automobile, and other consumer-facing segments that have grappled with poor urban demand. Also with rate cuts and income tax reforms, these actions boost consumption, lower the price of goods, and induce spending. For vehicles, this is opportune, and sales could be spurred, with the festival season around the corner. FMCG and discretionary spending will also bounce back as affordability rises in rural and urban India. Overall, this favors both consumers and corporations, so these sectors look good in the medium term. 

StartupTalky: For your HNI clients, what investment portfolio allocation strategies would you suggest to protect capital while still taking advantage of growth opportunities?

Mr. Ramavat: Protecting capital is HNI clients' priority, growth a second. The more the wealth increases, the more paramount is keeping the core intact rather than pursuing high returns. Segregation is best, the majority of funds remain in the core strategy that accumulated the wealth, equity, derivatives, or business investments. In addition to that, invest some in stable sources such as property, high-yield bonds, and commodities such as gold and silver. Invest only a small amount in higher-risk, higher-reward plays such as emerging industries or alternative assets. This preserves the capital while giving steady growth and selective upside. 

StartupTalky: In today's environment, should investors prioritize tactical sector-based plays or stick with long-term diversified strategies?

Mr. Ramavat: Diversification remains crucial, but over-emphasis on it can lower returns. Tactical sector bets can be profitable, particularly if policy is evident or in cyclical trends. Make the most of them, but don't over-weigh in a handful of sectors. The prudent strategy is to maintain a long-term diversified portfolio as a foundation, supplemented with selective sector bets in order to gain from short-term opportunities. This makes your investments stable while permitting you to gain from timely trends.

StartupTalky: How is Indira Securities guiding clients to manage risk from global headwinds, tariffs, and continued foreign institutional outflows?

Mr. Ramavat: We at Indira Securities believe in ethical business and empowering clients as discerning investors. To manage global risk, tariffs, and FII outflows, we blend education with practical solutions. Clients receive market update daily with prior day movements, trade ideas, global news, and stock news. Weekly reports offer a wider perspective, blending technical, fundamental, and derivatives insights. For large policy shifts such as GST reductions, we offer in-depth sector-by-sector analysis. Each recommendation is supported by extensive analysis, with precise stop losses and targets for risk management. This strategy assists clients in managing volatility while establishing confidence for the long term. 

StartupTalky : What are you seeing in terms of behavioural trends from investors, are they investing new money, rotating into certain sectors, or moving into safer assets?

Mr. Ramavat: Currently, a lot of young people are coming into the markets, so they are becoming more mainstream and available. IPOs and options trading have the most interest, brought about by the promise of easy returns with minimal capital. This "get rich quick" mentality is directing money away from safer assets and into riskier ones. A few new investors even attempt to turn trading into their primary source of income rather than treating it as disciplined investing. While participation rises, however, so does the bias toward riskier investments, which is both a potential and long-term hazard. 

StartupTalky: Going forward, what undervalued or contrarian opportunities do you think have the potential to provide patient investors with attractive long-term returns?

Mr. Ramavat: For long-term wealth, opportunities can arise not only from contrarian ideas but also from consensus and trend plays, or even a combination of all three. The essence lies in identifying companies with solid fundamentals but temporary short-term challenges.

Invest in companies in expanding industries, with honest and patient promoters. Despite high valuations or temporarily low earnings, these companies reward patient investors in the long term. For instance, Zomato was written off in the beginning because it was making losses, but with a well thought-out business model, dedicated promoters, and a gradual growth strategy, it’s profitable now and paying dividends to shareholders. Investors must also monitor shifting dynamics of companies, such as Asian Paints with intense competition, defence witnessing government favor, and Zomato turning around. This indicates that with a combination of the right business models, good leadership, and long-term prospects, opportunities, whether consensus, trend, or contrarian: can prove highly profitable if they are held firmly