A New Crypto Bull Market Runs on ETFs and Revenue, Not Retail

Bitcoin is trading at about $85,000, roughly a third below the record of just over $126,000 it set in October 2025. A bear market followed that peak, but prices are climbing again, and a growing number of analysts are calling it a new bull market, with confident crypto predictions to match.

Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 on 1 October and lifted its Ether target to $3,028. It pointed to returning exchange-traded fund inflows and a supportive economic backdrop. Those forecasts only tell half of the story.

The other half is how the market itself has changed, and who is doing the buying now.

A rally that ignores a rate hike

Crypto rallies used to depend on cheap money. This one does not. On 16 September the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, its first increase since 2023, as energy prices pushed inflation to 3.4% in August. A hike would once have been a warning sign for risky assets, yet crypto kept recovering. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $3.52 billion in August and about $2.65 billion in September, according to SoSoValue data. For a market that is used to trading on interest rates alone, that is a clear break from the pattern. Traders who want leveraged exposure to these moves should first understand how crypto futures work, because leverage turns a normal swing into a forced sale.

Wealth managers, not day traders, now set the pace

In earlier cycles, retail investors with trading apps and borrowed money set the pace. Prices rose when millions of small buyers piled in and fell when they left. Spot ETFs now carry a large share of the demand, and much of it comes from wealth managers, advisers and other larger investors who tend to hold for longer and spread their bets.

That should make price swings somewhat less violent, though not gone.

Token buybacks reward projects with income

Another change is that some tokens now behave a little like company shares. Crypto projects spent a record $638 million on token buybacks between January and August 2026, according to Allium Labs data. About 90% of that came from two projects, Hyperliquid and Pump.fun. In September, SEC staff said in an FAQ that mature networks can buy back non-security tokens without that act alone triggering securities law.

I think money is following revenue. Bitcoin still matters a great deal, but it no longer has to be the only engine, because investors can now compare tokens by what they earn.

Indian rules still decide what investors keep

Indian investors face their own rules. Our coverage of India's Bitcoin market and of tougher crypto tax compliance shows how regulation shapes returns, and how Indian startups benefit from crypto explains why the sector keeps attracting builders.

The bull market has returned on new terms. Institutional demand and projects with real income now matter more than a single big jump. A clear plan and patience will probably serve investors better than chasing the next spike. This is not investment advice.