Mark Zuckerberg Pushes Meta into Prediction Markets with New Arena App
Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg has apparently entrusted a dedicated team with building Arena, a standalone prediction markets software that would be competing with Kalshi and Polymarket.
A small team from Meta was recently assigned by CEO Mark Zuckerberg to develop an app for smartphones that is comparable to Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a media report. The app is likely to use a points system similar to video games instead of people betting real money.
However, the business has not completely eliminated the possibility of accepting real money wagers in the future. Prediction markets became a popular way for investors to bet on various events, such as monetary policy and sports competitions, after their meteoric rise in popularity during the 2024 US presidential election.
Meta’s New Arena App to Transform Prediction Market
Even though Meta already has social media apps like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, its new Arena app would run on its own. The Arena project was portrayed by media sources as experimental, but according to insiders, it is a major priority. This is all a part of Zuckerberg's larger plan to create new apps based on new online social behaviours.
There have been internal discussions on whether Meta's primary applications have hit saturation point due to the fact that the company's current platforms receive over 3.56 billion daily visits. Because of this worry, Meta's leadership has begun to seek expansion opportunities outside of Facebook and Instagram. Meta is currently working on a number of new standalone applications, Arena being one of them. Meta Photos is another one that's in the works; it would employ AI to create new material.
Meta Trying its Luck in Prediction Sector 2nd Time
Mark Zuckerberg has experimented in this domain before. Meta introduced Forecast in 2020, a prediction market software that relies on public assumptions regarding the early course of the Covid-19 epidemic. The software was marketed as a tool for exchanging information and operated on a points system. Without making any significant progress, Meta decided to shut it down in 2022.
Meta has a longer track record of problems with independent applications. With the 2019 launch of a specialised internal unit named New Product Experimentation, the company began developing podcast, travel, music, and matchmaking applications. However, the unit was closed down later.
From a small subculture of internet users interested in making predictions, prediction markets have expanded into the cultural mainstream. In 2025, a total of around $50 billion was exchanged between Kalshi and Polymarket. American news outlets have reported that by 2026, that sum will have topped $130 billion. Prediction market operators earn a commission on each trade; therefore, the model has the ability to generate a tidy profit. This is the main selling point.
Many companies are taking an interest in this industry. FanDuel, DraftKings, and Gemini are standard gambling platforms. Trump Media and Technology Group has also declared intentions for its own prediction market.
